[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 05

Tue Feb 8 10:18:45 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 400 to 700km/sec over 
the UT day, indicating the Earth has entered the anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward over the UT day. Solar region 
732 (the return of very active 720) has been mostly quiet over 
the past 24 hours. Another solar region has rotated around the 
south east limb (mentioned in yesterdays report). This region 
has been numbered 733 by US SEC, and has produced some C class 
events. Low to moderate activity may be experienced today. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3233 4352
      Darwin              17   3233 4341
      Learmonth           22   3223 5353
      Culgoora            22   2233 535-
      Canberra            22   2233 5353
      Hobart               7   2--- ----
      Casey(Ant)          37   4--5 336-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2241 1123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb    17    active 
09 Feb    17    active 
10 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 7 February and 
is current for interval 8-9 February. Active periods expected 
next two days due to coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity. Chance minor storm periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communications mildly degraded 
next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Feb    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb     5    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 7 February 
and is current for interval 8-9 February. Lower than normal MUFs 
observed after local dawn this morning following cooronal hole 
wind stream induced activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    98000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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