[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 10 10:47:59 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. B-class flares
were observed from regions 732 and 733. The coronal hole
effect kept the solar wind stream strengthened with solar
wind speed remaining between 700 and 750 km/s throughout
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated by 7nT (approx.) on both
sides of the normal value for most of the UT day. The coronal
hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream
strengthened for approximately one more day i.e. on 10
February UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at
low to very low levels during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4333
Darwin 15 3332 4333
Learmonth 19 3333 5333
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 18 3433 4333
Hobart 15 3333 3333
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 120 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 34 4643 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 12 Mostly unsettled with possibility of active periods.
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 8 Mostly quiet with possibility of unsettled periods.
COMMENT: The currently going on coronal hole effect may
keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced upto Unsettled to
Active levels on 10 February. The geomagentic activity is
then expected to gradually decrease to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 11 February and then down to mostly Quiet levels
on 12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradation in HF conditions
possible on high latitudes on 10 February, otherwise HF
conditions expected to remain mostly normal during the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
12 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: There is a slight chance of minor degradations in
HF conditions in southern Aus/NZ regions on 10 February,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 3 days in most Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 684 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 275000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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