[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec:  92/37

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity is likely to remain at very low levels with a 
slight chance of a C-class x-ray flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1112 3121
      Darwin               4   1112 2122
      Learmonth            7   1113 3221
      Culgoora             4   0112 3111
      Canberra             4   0112 3111
      Hobart               4   0112 3111
      Casey(Ant)          11   2333 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: An increase in geomagnetic activity to active and minor 
storm levels is possible on 27 December due to a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream moving into a geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Observed spread F at Niue and Scott overnight, otherwise 
Normal HF conditions noted for this particular time in the season 
and solar cycle. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Dec    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec    24    near predicted monthly values 
26 Dec    24    near predicted monthly values 
27 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: T index increased slightly above monthly predicted values 
most likely due to a slight increase in spot numbers/solar activity. 
Expect MUFs to be near predicted monthly values or slightly higher
until late on 27 December due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
moving into geoeffective position.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    32600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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