[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec:  93/38

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low 
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has was very low for 23 December. Boulder 
region 10838 shows potential for C-class X-ray flares. Expect 
very low to low levels of activity over the next three days. 
The solar wind is presently 360 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1210 0000
      Darwin               1   1110 0000
      Learmonth            2   2200 0000
      Culgoora             1   1110 0001
      Canberra             2   0310 0000
      Hobart               1   1110 0000
      Casey(Ant)           8   3332 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2111 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: None. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during 
the next 3 days, other than isolated cases of sporadic E at low 
latitudes and spread F at low and high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Dec    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
25 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
26 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E and spread F noted at low 
and high latitudes over the last 24 hours. Expect normal HF conditions 
over the next three days with continuing isolated cases of sporadic 
E and spread F at low and high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    99800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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