[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity is likely to remain very low to low with 
a possibility of C-class x-ray flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1233 2111
      Darwin               5   2222 2101
      Learmonth            4   1222 2101
      Culgoora             5   1222 2110
      Canberra             8   1333 2110
      Hobart               8   1333 2111
      Casey(Ant)          13   2-34 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0001 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
28 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: An increase in geomagnetic activity to active and minor 
storm levels is possible on 27 December due to a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream moving into a geoeffective position. 
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0655UT on 25 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec    35    near predicted monthly values 
27 Dec    30    near predicted monthly values 
28 Dec    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: T index increased slightly above monthly predicted values 
most likely due to an increase in spot numbers/solar activity. 
Expect MUFs to be near predicted monthly values or slightly higher. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    33000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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