[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 17 10:06:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last
24 hours. A few B-class and two C-class flares were
observed, the largest being a C2.4 flare at 1257UT
from region 836(S10W79). Most of today's flares came
from region 836. Solar wind speed increased from 300
to 370 km/s by 0100UT today and remained at this level
till around 1800UT. It then gradually decreased to
340 km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the
interplanetory magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value with minor fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day today. Region
835(N18E14) is still the largest region on the visible
solar disk. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low to low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 2323 2221
Darwin 8 2322 2222
Learmonth 9 2223 2321
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 10 2323 2231
Hobart 10 2323 2321
Casey(Ant) 15 3443 2221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
19 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet to unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain mostly at quiet levels during the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Isolated disturbed periods were observed even on
some low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 21 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 21 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 21 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditons are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 21600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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