[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec:  85/27

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 
24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 
340 to 310 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetory magnetic field (Bz) 
remained close to the normal value almost the whole day 
today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low 
to low levels during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2112 2101
      Darwin               3   1112 2101
      Learmonth            4   1112 2201
      Culgoora             4   2012 2112
      Canberra             3   1112 2101
      Hobart               4   1112 ----
      Casey(Ant)          11   33-3 -212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1311 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     5    Quiet 
19 Dec     5    Quiet 
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet 
levels during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels during the 
next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Isolated disturbed periods were observed even on 
some low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. HF 
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most 
locations during the next 3 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Dec    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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