[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 16 10:19:04 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Only a few B-class flares were observed mainly from region
835(N18E01). Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
400 to 300 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetory magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to the normal value almost the whole day today. Region
835(N18E14) is still the largest region on the visible solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low
levels during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 2312 1001
Darwin 3 2211 1001
Learmonth 3 2211 1001
Culgoora 3 1221 1000
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 10 -4-3 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0121 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet to unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain mostly at quiet levels from 16 to 18 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Isolated disturbed periods were observed even on
some low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during the
next 3 days on most locations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditons are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list