[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 11 10:51:03 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
with no notable flare activity. Solar activity levels are expected 
to range from very low to low levels for the next 2 days with 
the chance of isolated C-class events. Solar wind velocity climbed 
at 0700UT from 300km/s to 400km/s and remained at this level. 
Bz had two southward periods (max -10nT) during the UT day, these 
being at 0000UT-0500UT and 1600UT-1900UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3332 2233
      Darwin               8   2321 1233
      Learmonth           10   3322 2233
      Culgoora             8   2321 1232
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              12   3431 2232
      Casey(Ant)          14   --43 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
12 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
13 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled, 
with isolated Active periods over the last 24 hours stemming 
from a slight elevation in the solar wind parameters. Similar 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions over the last 24 hours were mostly normal 
for low latitudes, with depressed conditions for mid to high 
latitudes due to a slight increase in geomagnetic activity. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Dec    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Dec    25    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions where observed over the 
last 24 hours for Northern Aus. and Equatorial regions. Depressed 
conditions observed for Southern Aus and NZ regions after an 
increase in geomagnetic activity over the entire UT day. Similar
conditions are expected over mid-high latitudes for the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 276 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    12600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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