[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 10 10:45:47 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
without any notable flare activity. New regions 833, 834 and
835 rotated on disc. Solar activity levels are expected to range
from very low to low levels for the next 2 days with the chance
of isolated C-class events. Solar wind velocity was steady at
280km/s from 0000UT to 1400UT whereupon it fell to 260km/s. It
then rose to a maximum of 300km/s at 2200UT with a corresponding
period of sustained southward Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 2121 1223
Darwin 5 2121 1224
Learmonth 5 2112 1224
Culgoora 4 2111 1123
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 4 1221 1123
Casey(Ant) 9 32-2 1233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
conditions at all latitudes during the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days, with
possible Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours
with isolated disturbed periods for low and high latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours, with some enhanced and disturbed periods disturbed
periods for Equatorial and Northern Australia regions. Mostly
normal HF conditions where observed for Southern Aus. and NZ
regions. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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