[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 10 10:45:47 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
without any notable flare activity. New regions 833, 834 and 
835 rotated on disc. Solar activity levels are expected to range 
from very low to low levels for the next 2 days with the chance 
of isolated C-class events. Solar wind velocity was steady at 
280km/s from 0000UT to 1400UT whereupon it fell to 260km/s. It 
then rose to a maximum of 300km/s at 2200UT with a corresponding 
period of sustained southward Bz. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2121 1223
      Darwin               5   2121 1224
      Learmonth            5   2112 1224
      Culgoora             4   2111 1123
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               4   1221 1123
      Casey(Ant)           9   32-2 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions at all latitudes during the last 24 hours. Similar 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days, with 
possible Unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours 
with isolated disturbed periods for low and high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Dec    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
11 Dec    25    near predicted monthly values 
12 Dec    25    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions where observed over the 
last 24 hours, with some enhanced and disturbed periods disturbed 
periods for Equatorial and Northern Australia regions. Mostly 
normal HF conditions where observed for Southern Aus. and NZ 
regions. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 
2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 293 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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