[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 12 10:52:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
only a C1.1 class flare from region 835 the only notable flare
activity. Solar activity levels are expected to range from very
low to low levels for the next 2 days with possible isolated
C-class events. A marked increase in solar wind paramters occured
during the UT day (due to a small coronal hole wind stream) with
the velocity rising to almost 600km/s at 1340UT, and then gradually
declined to be 500km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward
during 0000UT-0920UT (max -11nT) as well as the period from
1320UT-1740UT.
have good flare potential.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 17 2333 3443
Darwin 13 2222 3444
Learmonth 24 -233 3553
Culgoora 11 1233 2333
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 16 2333 2443
Casey(Ant) 18 3434 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 12 3431 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Unsettled to Active
levels over the last 24 hours from the effects of a small coronal
hole wind stream that elevated the solar wind paramters. Mostly
Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible
Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
13 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for all regions latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Depressed conditions expected to continue for mid to high latitudes
for the next 2 days with possible disturbed conditions for low
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 20 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions where observed over the last
24 hours for all regions due to increased geomgnetic activity.
These conditions are expected to prevail, more so for Southern
Aus. and NZ regions, for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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