[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 1-2 
days. The SOHO EIT imagery shows the possibilty of increased 
activity due to the rotation of a new region on the eastern limb 
in the next 2-3 days. No significant events noted on GOES x-ray 
or SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed remains elevated in response 
to recurrent coronal hole wind stream which is expected to decline 
as the day progresses. However another coronal hole is evident 
in SOHO EIT imagery extending south from the equator and may 
be geoeffective in 1-2 days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2333 3322
      Learmonth           12   2333 3322
      Culgoora            10   2233 3222
      Canberra            12   2333 3232
      Hobart              10   2233 3222
      Casey(Ant)          17   3433 24-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             120   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   4432 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Aug    12    Unsettled 
21 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected today as the 
Earth leaves a coronal hole wind stream. There is a possibility 
of increased geomagnetic activity on 20th due to another coronal 
hole currently west of the central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Aug    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug    25    near predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    28    near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    28    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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