[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 3 
days. No significant events noted on GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO 
imagery. Solar wind speed remains elevated in response to recurrent 
coronal hole wind stream which is expected to decline as the 
day progresses. However another coronal hole is evident in SOHO 
EIT imagery extending south from the equator and may be geoeffective 
in 2-3 days. SOHO EIT imagery shows the return of the solar region 
10791. This region did not produce significant flare activity 
on its previous rotation. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
17/2035UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Mostly unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 17 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3333 2422
      Learmonth           10   2322 2332
      Culgoora            11   2333 2322
      Canberra            15   3433 2411
      Hobart              14   3333 2422
      Casey(Ant)          21   3433 3533
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             144   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   3444 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug    12    Unsettled 
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettle conditions expected today as a result of the 
Earth remaining in a coronal hole wind stream, gradually returning 
to quiet-unsettled levels over the next day or two. Possibility 
of increased geomagnetic activity on 20th due to another coronal 
hole currently passing the central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    28    near predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    26    near predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    26    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 620 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   302000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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