[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 17 09:52:18 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 3 
days, however there remains a slight chance of a C class flare 
from region 10797. No significant events noted on GOES x-ray 
or SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed remains elevated in response 
to recurrent coronal hole wind stream which is expected to decline 
over the next day. However another coronal hole is evident in 
SOHO EIT imagery extending south from lat -8 and East from the 
central meridian, which may be geoeffective in three days time. 
SOHO EIT imagery shows the return of the solar region 10791. 
This region did not produce significant flare activity on its 
previous rotation. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
16/1335UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Unsettled to active 

Estimated Indices 16 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3433 3223
      Learmonth           13   3322 4324
      Culgoora            10   2323 3222
      Canberra            14   3433 3223
      Hobart              16   3433 4222
      Casey(Ant)          17   3443 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             125   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1111 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    18    active 
18 Aug    12    Unsettled 
19 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Elevated levels of geomagnetic activity should continue 
today as a result of the Earth remaining in a coronal hole wind 
stream, gradually returning to quiet-unsettled levels over the 
following two days. Possibility of increased geomagnetic activity 
late on 19th due to another coronal hole currently passing the 
central meridian. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at high latitudes overnight. 
Mild degradation of HF communications expected over the day at 
mid to high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    25    near predicted monthly values 
18 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression observed at low latitudes, with slight 
enhancement overnight in southern Aus/NZ region, otherwise near 
predicted monthly values observed. Expect similar conditions 
to prevail on the 17th in response to elevated magnetic activity, 
returning to near normal on the 18th and 19th. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    80300 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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