[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 3 
days. No significant events noted on GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO 
imagery. An increase in solar wind speed to 550km/s occurred 
at approx 1500UT which may be due to an earlier than expected 
entry into a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. SOHO EIT imagery 
shows the return of the solar region 10791. This region did not 
produce significant flare activity on its previous rotation. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1112
      Learmonth            3   2101 1212
      Culgoora             5   1121 2222
      Canberra             5   -321 1112
      Hobart               4   2121 1111
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   4422 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    20    active 
17 Aug    20    active 
18 Aug    15    Unsettled 
COMMENT: An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected in the 
next two days due to the earth entering into a coronal hole wind 
stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at high latitudes 10-20UT. 
Mild degradation of HF communications expected over the next 
two days at mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
17 Aug    15    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
18 Aug    15    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression may be experienced on 17-18 Aug for 
southern Aus/NZ region only associated with anticipated increase 
in geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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