[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 3 
days. No significant events noted on GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO 
imagery. The earth is expected to enter a coronal hole wind stream 
on the 16th of August. Region 10797 is slowly maturing and is 
presently 80 millionths of the solar disk and has a stable magnetic 
configuration. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3321 2012
      Learmonth            4   ---1 2022
      Culgoora             5   2221 2111
      Canberra             5   -322 1011
      Hobart               7   3321 2012
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3423 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    11    Unsettled 
16 Aug    16    active 
17 Aug    20    active 
COMMENT: A moderate increase in geomagnetic activity is expected 
in the next few days due to the earth entering into a coronal 
hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation of HF communications over the mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    25    near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
17 Aug    15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild deepression may be experienced in coming days for 
southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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