[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2123 2211
      Learmonth            5   1112 3210
      Culgoora             6   1123 2211
      Canberra             5   21-- ----
      Hobart               6   2113 2212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   3344 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 661 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   192000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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