[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              70/5
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 2-3 
days. No events noted on GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO imagery. A 
new emerging flux region has been added, 10797 located at S15E60. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1121 2111
      Learmonth            2   1021 1000
      Culgoora             3   1111 2111
      Canberra             1   0010 2000
      Hobart               3   1111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           6   1232 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             22   3245 5322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Aug     7    Quiet 
14 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions expected for the low and mid 
latitudes with quiet to unsettled conditions expected at high 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    15    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: A slight depression was noted in the mid latitude MUFs 
yesterday and local dawn today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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