[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              70/5               70/5




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1211 1111
      Learmonth            2   1101 1011
      Culgoora             3   1111 1112
      Canberra             3   2201 1012
      Hobart               4   2211 1111
      Casey(Ant)           4   1221 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   1121 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
14 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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