[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:52:16 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 2-3 
days although SOHO LASCO EIT shows a possible new region rotating 
onto the disk on the eastern limb. No obvious events noted on 
GOES x-ray or SOHO LASCO imagery. Sustained period of southward 
IMF observed at ACE location 0600-1400UT associated with slightly 
increased solar wind speed that may be associated with the small 
equatorial coronal hole westward of the central meridian. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 10 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2234 5211
      Learmonth           13   213- 5210
      Culgoora            13   213- 5211
      Canberra            25   3--5 5311
      Hobart              17   23-4 5211
      Casey(Ant)           9   2233 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3322 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug    11    Unsettled 
12 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Enhanced magnetic activity to minor storm levels observed 
at low latitudes in Australian region overnight possibly due 
to sustained period of southward IMF ranging from -5 to -10nT 
from 0600-1400UT. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected 
today with slightly enhanced activity at high latitudes possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condtions. Noted 15-40% daytime enhancement 
at low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    39    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be near normal over next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
(for IMF and solar wind details see sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_3d.html) 

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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