[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed slowly declined from 600 to 500km/sec 
over the UT day, indicating the Earth is leaving the coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward over the UT 
day. Solar region 747 (S05W59) produce a minor flare in the 
past 24 hours.  Solar region 750 (S08E71) shows some plage 
area in Culgoora H-alpha imagery and may produce minor flare 
activity in coming days. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3213 2322
      Learmonth            9   3213 2322
      Culgoora             8   2213 1322
      Canberra             9   3213 2321
      Hobart              11   3214 2322
      Casey(Ant)          14   4333 2323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             48   7753 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    11    Unsettled 
08 Apr     7    Quiet 
09 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to quiet 
in coming days, after the recent coronal hole wind stream induced 
activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF communication conditions now expected with decline 
in geomagetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"