[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed further declined from 480 to 420km/sec 
over the UT day, indicating the Earth is leaving the coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward over the UT 
day. Solar region 750 (S08E58) produced some very minor flare 
activity over the past 24 hours. A coronal hole is visible in 
SEC soft xray imager data in the north-east quadrant of the solar 
disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1223 3100
      Learmonth            7   2123 3100
      Culgoora             6   1223 2100
      Canberra             7   1223 3100
      Hobart               7   1223 3101
      Casey(Ant)           9   2333 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3223 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     7    Quiet 
09 Apr     6    Quiet 
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected. Very weak recurrent activity 
10-11 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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