[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 6 09:55:16 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
Region 747 producing a C1.1 class event at 2005UT as well as
some minor B-class events. Further C-class events are possible
with forecasted Low activity conditions for the next 2 days.
Region 747 has not displayed any further growth in size or change
in magnetic complexity. Solar wind velocity was 550km/s at 0000UT,
and then jumped to 650km/s at 0230UT and then gradually fell
back to 600km/s over the UT day. At the same time as this sharp
increase in solar wind speed, the solar wind temp and density
both fell. There was also a fall in magnitude of the total interplanetary
magnetic field value, while the Bz component remained south for
the entire UT day. Solar wind paramters are expected to remain
at elevated levels for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 22 5434 3323
Learmonth 24 5335 3333
Culgoora 20 5434 3222
Canberra 25 5444 4322
Hobart 25 5444 4323
Casey(Ant) 18 4433 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 1222 2445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 17 active
07 Apr 11 Unsettled
08 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. Moderately disturbed conditions
expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm periods
may be experienced.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal-Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 15 Depressed 30%
07 Apr 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
08 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 4 April
and is current for interval 4-6 April. Depressed conditions observed
for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day for 05April. Current
trend for pre local dawn MUF values indicates that normal to
enhanced conditions for all Aus/NZ regions are possible during
local day, but with possibility of depressed conditions occuring
during UT day, due to current geomagnetic storm conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list