[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 4 09:42:01 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low, with no significant flare
activity observed. Similar conditions are expected for the next
2 days. Region 747 has shown no significant growth in sunspot
size or magnetic complexity. The solar wind velocity cotinued
to fall from 360km/s at 0000UT to 300km/s at 1600UT at which
a small step was observed in both solar wind velocity and temp,
indicating the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream.
Solar wind velocity has since risen to be 360km/s at the time
of this report. The north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT ove the UT day.
Solar wind paramters are expected to further increase over the
next 24 hours due to the current geoeffective coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 2221 1111
Learmonth 4 2212 1110
Culgoora 3 2210 0112
Canberra 4 2211 1112
Hobart 4 1221 1111
Casey(Ant) 8 2332 1221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1011 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 25 active
05 Apr 20 active
06 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours.
At 1600UT a small step in solar wind parameters indicated the
expected arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from the
current geoeffective coronal hole, which should result in Unsettled
conditions with isolated Active periods for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
05 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. Degradated conditions possible at high latitudes
between 04-05 Apr due to the current coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Apr 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 29 March
and is current for interval 2-4 April. HF conditions are expected
to change over the next 24 hours with periods of moderate depressions
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions for the next 2 days due
to coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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