[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 5 09:50:15 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low, with no significant flare 
activity observed. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours. Region 747 has shown a small increase in its overall 
area while retaining the same level of magnetic complexity. Chance 
of an isolated C-class flare is possible in the next few days. 
The solar wind velocity continued to increase from 360km/s at 
0000UT to 600km/s at the time of this report, consistent with 
the anticipated arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-10nT over the UT day, with a predominently 
southward orientation for the latter half of the UT day. Solar 
wind paramters are expected to remain at elevated levels for 
the next 2 days. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   1232 3435
      Learmonth           15   2232 3445
      Culgoora             8   1221 2334
      Canberra            12   1231 3435
      Hobart               9   0221 2435
      Casey(Ant)          16   3343 3336
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           142   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
06 Apr    25    active 
07 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April and 
is current for interval 4-6 April. Elevated solar wind parameters 
due to the coronal hole high speed stream have created Unsettled 
to Minor Storm conditions. Bz was southward for the last half 
of the UT day as geomagnetic activity increased. Unsettled to 
Active periods are expected over the next 2 days with isolated 
minor storm periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
06 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over all latitudes during 
the last 24 hours. Degraded conditions are expected, especially 
at high latitudes, over the next 2 days due to geomagnetic storming 
effects from the current geoeffective current coronal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
06 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 4 April 
and is current for interval 4-6 April. Normal HF conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours. However an expected change is due today 
with degraded HF conditions for the next 24-36 hours, with mild 
to moderate depressions for Southern Aus/NZ regions. MUF depressions 
of 20% below monthly normal possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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