[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 3 09:30:30 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low, with no significant flare
activity observed. Similar conditions are expected for the next
2 days. Region 747 grew in actual sunspot size, but its magnetic
complexity remains unchanged. The solar wind velocity fell from
400km/s to be 350km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-2nT. Solar wind paramters are expected to increase
over the next 24 hours due to a recurring coronal hole now in
geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 1012 1100
Learmonth 3 2021 1100
Culgoora 1 1001 1101
Canberra 2 1002 1100
Hobart 1 0002 1100
Casey(Ant) 5 2222 1211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1342 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 20 active
04 Apr 20 active
05 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 29 March and
is current for interval 1-3 April. Quiet conditions observed
over the last 24 hours, with the anticipated high speed solar
wind stream from the current geoeffective coronal hole expected
to arrive in the next 24 hours. Expect Unsettled conditions with
isolated Active periods for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. Mild degradation at high latitudes expected
between 03-04 Apr due to coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 29 March
and is current for interval 2-4 April. Expected change in HF
conditions over the next 24 hours with periods of moderate depressions
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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