[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 7 09:22:46 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Spots to east and north east of 667 have now been numbered
670 and 669 respectively. No significant flare activity has been
produced from these regions, with minimal plage apearing in Culgoora
H-alpha imagery around these regions. There have been no radio
events observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. The increasing
trend in solar background xray flux shows mild elevation to B3
compared to 3 day averages. At this stage the cluster of regions
667, 670 and 669 all have a relatively simple magnetic configuartion,
and are located just east of the solar central meridian. SEC
edited events show minor B class flares from 667. Also, overnight
a new sunspot group has rapidly emereged at S10W30 which was
numbered by SEC as 671. Solar wind speed showed a steadily increasing
trend over the past 24 hours with wind speed starting the day
at around 360km/sec and currently at 440km/sec. This mild increase
appears associated with a slower than 27 day recurrent pattern
(coronal hole presumably). No further SOHO /LASCO C2/C3 imagery
is available to confirm that the minor filament/CME eruption
reported yesterday was non-Earth directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 1223 2322
Darwin 7 1222 2322
Townsville 8 1223 2322
Learmonth 11 2223 2421
Culgoora 11 1233 3322
Canberra 11 1223 3332
Hobart 13 1234 3332
Casey(Ant) 14 3433 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1122 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Some very minor activity may be experienced over next
two days with unsettled levels possible. There is an outside
chance for isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days. Chance for mild degradation at high latitudes 07-08 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days.
Mild degradation possible local night hours 08 Sep, southern
Aus/NZ region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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