[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 8 09:29:16 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar regions 669 and 670 have shown spot development
overnight. These two regions are part of the cluster of spot
groups 667 and 670 and 669, and now are near the centre of the
solar disk. The large single spot 667 has been quiet over the
past 24 hours. These regions remain magnetically simple and so
far and have only produced minor xray flares. Region 671 in the
south-western solar quadrant has also shown development overnight.
At present it also has a simple magnetic configuration. Solar
activity may increase further over coming days if the development
rate of these regions is sustained. The solar forecast has been
raised to low to moderate for this reason. Solar wind speed via
the SOHO MTOF monitor was at around 450km/sec over the UT day.
This moderate increase in solar wind speed is related to recurrence,
and should begin to signs of slowing by end of UT day 8 Sep.
A semi-halo far-sided coromal mass ejection was visible in SOHO
LASCO C3 imagery from around 16UT. This event appears eastwardly
directed. Solar region 661 is due back to the north-east disk
8 Sep, and emission is visible North 6-15 degrees in SOHO EIT285
imagery. The CME may be associated with the return of this regiion.
661 was a moderate to large solar region which whilst magnetically
complex did not produce any significant flare activity on its
previous rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 2323 2212
Darwin 8 2323 2212
Townsville 8 2323 2112
Learmonth 8 3223 2111
Culgoora 8 1323 2222
Canberra 9 1324 2212
Hobart 10 2324 2212
Casey(Ant) 11 3332 3122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 2244 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 8 Quiet
10 Sep 8 Quiet
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest unsettled (possible
active) periods today then a general decline to quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly good conditions expected for the next few days.
Some regions may experience enhancements of 15%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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