[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 6 09:27:13 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Some spot development between 04-20UT to north-east and
south east of 667. Magnetic configuration of this region remains
simple. Background xray flux only shows a small increase toward
the end of UT day. This trend may continue if current spot development
around 667 continues. 667 is currently quiet with no solar radio
events observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. Solar wind
speed was steady until around 17UT afterwhich jumping to 360 km/sec.
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was southward 10nT 13-17UT. The origin of the small jump in the
solar wind speed is unclear. US Space Environment Centre reported
a filament eruption at N22W30 around 06UT. Subsequent viewing
of LASCO C2 imagery (as C3 had stopped) showed a north-west directed
bubble. The lack of subsequent images hampered decision on
geoeffectiveness. But available imagery suggests that the CME bubble
did not expand greatly and appeared directed mostly away from the
Earth. This estimate may be revised as more images become available,
as these would show any further expansion of the CME. Also,
speculatively, recent far-sided halo mass ejections suggest that
a possible active region may rotate onto the solar disk in 5-7 days
time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 1112 2322
Darwin 7 1112 2333
Townsville 6 0111 2333
Learmonth 7 1111 2333
Culgoora 4 1112 1222
Canberra 3 0111 1221
Hobart 1 01-- ---3
Casey(Ant) 5 2222 1211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1101 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 6 Quiet
07 Sep 6 Quiet
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that quiet conditions can be mostly
expected over the next few days. However, mild effects may be experienced
from the recent small filament eruption on 08 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days. Chance for mild degradation at high latitudes 08 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over first half of the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for the next few days.
Mild degradation possible local night hours 08 Sep, southern
Aus/NZ region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 29600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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