[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 29 09:13:39 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Oct             30 Oct             31 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: Increased type III activity observed on Culgoora Radiospectrograph 
since dawn this morning. Background solar xray flux from GOES12 
satellite shows a mildly increasing trend also. Emmission probably 
from solar region 693 in south-east solar quadrant. This region 
produced several very minor flares over the past 24 hours. Solar 
region 691 in the northeast solar quadrant produced a single 
minor flare. Low level M class flare activity possible from both 
693 and 687 which is located in the northwest solar quadrant. 
693 appears the most active at present, with the brightest plage 
visible in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. Solar wind speed has declined 
from 380 to 300 km/sec over the past 24 hours. A minor discontinuity 
observed in the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field(Bz) at around 18UT. Solar wind speed is expected to show 
a mild increase on 30 October, due to a small coronal hole visible 
to the west of central meridian in SOHO EIT284 satellite imagery. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   2100 0011
      Darwin               2   2100 0---
      Townsville           2   2100 0121
      Learmonth            1   2100 0012
      Culgoora             1   1100 0011
      Canberra             1   1100 0012
      Hobart               1   1100 0011
      Casey(Ant)           6   3321 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Oct     5    Quiet 
30 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
31 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected today. However, 
27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods possible on 
30 Oct. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Oct    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Oct    85    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Oct    85    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Oct    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
at least the next day. A mild degradation in HF conditions for 
southern Aus/NZ region may be experienced on 31 Oct. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    41900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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