[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 30 08:42:05 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: A small coronal hole may cause a mild increase in solar 
wind speed 30-31 Oct. The signature of this coronal hole is visible 
in US ACE solar wind speed data, rising from 300 km/sec to 380km/sec 
over the UT day. Bz fluctuated southward later in the Ut day. 
The sun has been mildly active over the past 24 hours. However, 
the recent increasing trend in solar background xray flux has 
levelled off at the B4 level. Several minor C class events were 
observed over the past 24 hours. Solar region 693 (S14E48) produced 
these C class flares. Solar region 687 (N13W47) only produced 
a very minor B xray class flare, and is in decay.Isolated M class 
flaring is possible from 693. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1102 3232
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           6   1002 3233
      Learmonth            7   0002 3332
      Culgoora             1   100- ----
      Canberra             6   0003 2232
      Hobart               5   0003 2222
      Casey(Ant)           9   2322 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
31 Oct    12    Unsettled 
01 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods possible 
on 30 Oct. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for today and 
possibly day 2 for high latitudes, due to mild increase in solar 
wind speed from a coronal hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
31 Oct    50    near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
today. A mild degradation in HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ 
region may be experienced on 31 Oct. This may reduce the current 
enhanced conditions (relative to the monthly T index of 30) to 
near predicted monthly values. Effects are expected to be minimal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:    24000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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