[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 28 09:40:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: A new solar solar region has rotated onto the south
east limb and has been numbered 693 (S13E72) by US SEC. Isolated
low level M class flares possible from on disk regions 687 and
691. Solar wind speed declined from 480 to 320 km/sec obve rthe
UT day. Recurrence suggests a mild coronal hole induced increase
in solar wind speed on 30 Oct. An apparent back-side full halo
mass ejection was reported 1040 to 2030UT by SOHO LASCO instrument.
Speculatively, this is presumably from a new region on the far-side
of the Sun, as there have been few regions which have transited
the disk recently. This region may appear in 5 to 7 days time
on the solar south-east limb, as GONG MDI far side images appear
to show a possible region of inferred magnetic flux 15 to 20
degrees south of the solar equator near the far-side central
meridian on the far side of the Sun. Inexeperience in interpretation
of these far-side images may make this interpretation invalid.
Time will tell.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 1111 2222
Darwin 4 1111 2222
Townsville 5 1111 3222
Learmonth 5 1010 3222
Culgoora 4 1111 2222
Canberra 9 ---3 2222
Hobart 4 0120 2222
Casey(Ant) 8 23-2 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 1000 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 6 Quiet
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods possible
on 30 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 85 about 10% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct 85 about 10% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 85 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
at least the next day. A mild degradation in HF conditions for
southern Aus/NZ region may be experienced on 31 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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