[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 04

[rwc at ips.gov.au]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined from 460km/s to 420km/s and 
IMF Bz was mainly northwards during the past 24 hours. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly for 27 
October as the effect of the previous coronal hole declines. 
Solar regions 687 and 691 produced minor B/C class flares and 
have the possibility of producing M-class flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2110 1012
      Darwin               2   2100 1113
      Townsville           1   1110 0103
      Learmonth            1   2000 1002
      Culgoora             1   1110 0012
      Canberra             5   12-- ----
      Hobart               1   1110 1002
      Casey(Ant)           6   3-31 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   2334 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct     6    Quiet 
28 Oct     6    Quiet 
29 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Predominantly IMF Bz northwards and declining solar 
wind speeds resulted in mostly quiet conditions. Mostly quiet 
to unsettled conditions are expected for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with midnight enhancements 
at low latitudes are expected for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Oct    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 Oct    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 25-27 October (SWFs) . Mostly normal 
to good HF conditions are expected for at least the next day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   152000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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