[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 13 09:44:49 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low over the 
last 24 hours. No significant event has been recorded 
during this period. The solar wind speed remained between 
410 km/s and 440 km/s (approx.) almost the whole day. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal 
value throughout the day. The solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels during the next few days. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 12/1205UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2222 0103
      Darwin               4   2122 1112
      Townsville           4   2122 1112
      Learmonth            4   2222 0003
      Culgoora             4   1122 1112
      Canberra             3   2122 0004
      Hobart               4   2222 0102
      Casey(Ant)          10   3343 0003
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3321 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct    14    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
14 Oct    14    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
15 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole 
the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced 
to mostly unsettled levels with possibility of some active 
and quiet periods for the next two days. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to gradually decline thereafter. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate depressions in MUFs 
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed during 
the next two days, especially on mid and high latitudes, 
due to a possible continued rise in the geomagnetic 
activity during this period. The HF conditions are expected 
to gradually return to normal around 15 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Oct    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% with periods of significant
      degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
14 Oct    42    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
15 Oct    48    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions may be observed in the 
Southern Aus/NZ regions during the next two days due to a 
possible continued rise in the geomagnetic activity during 
this period. The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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