[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has remained very low over the last 24 
hours. Solar wind speed was between 450 and 550 km/s from around 
08UT onwards. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) was mostly southwards until 12UT, and fluctuated 
on either side of the normal value thereafter. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2433 4323
      Darwin              17   2443 4323
      Townsville          20   3444 4323
      Learmonth           19   3433 4423
      Culgoora            17   2433 4423
      Canberra            19   2434 4424
      Hobart              19   2434 4423
      Casey(Ant)          14   3433 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3333 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for interval 13-14 October. Active conditions 
were observed at times throughout the day due to recurrent coronal 
hole activity. Isolated active levels may be observed 14 Oct 
as activity declines to quiet to unsettled conditions over the 
next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may be observed at times on 14 
Oct at high latitudes as geomagnetic activity declines. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct    50    enhanced 15-20% during local day at low to mid 
                lats, depressed 15-20% during local day at high 
                lats, then near predicted. 
15 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
16 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   185000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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