[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 12 09:37:26 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low over the
last 24 hours. No significant event has been recorded
during this period. The biggest flare, observed today,
was a B2.6 flare at 1156UT. The solar wind speed gradually
increased from 400 km/s to 460 km/s (approx.) by 0700UT
and then decreased to 400 km/s by 1300UT. The solar wind
speed has been nearly steady around 410 km/s thereafter.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value almost the whole day. The solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels during the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 2221 3213
Darwin 7 2221 3223
Townsville 7 2221 3213
Learmonth 7 2221 3213
Culgoora 5 2221 2213
Canberra 8 2321 3212
Hobart 8 2321 3212
Casey(Ant) 14 3342 3322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3303 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 18 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
13 Oct 20 Mostly unsettled. Active periods likely.
14 Oct 20 Mostly unsettled. Active periods likely.
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole
the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced
to mostly unsettled levels with possibility of active
periods for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate depressions in MUFs
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed during
the next three days, especially on mid and high latitudes,
due to a possible rise in the geomagnetic activity during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 42 near monthly predicted values/depressed 5%.
13 Oct 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
14 Oct 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions may be observed in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions during the next three days due to a
possible rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 58300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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