[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 11 09:55:25 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low over the
last 24 hours. The biggest flare, observed today, was a
C2-flare from region 680. Culgoora recorded a Type II event
at 2128 UT, but this event could not be corelated to any
other event. The solar wind speed remained approximately
360 km/s until 1500UT and then gradually increased to
420 km/s (approx.) by 2100 UT and remained at this level
until the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost
the whole day. The solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels during the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 1113 2112
Darwin 4 1112 2112
Townsville 5 1112 3122
Learmonth 4 1102 2123
Culgoora 5 1113 2112
Canberra 7 1233 2112
Hobart 5 1213 2112
Casey(Ant) 10 2-33 3122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 3101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
12 Oct 17 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
13 Oct 17 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: Due to effect of a coronal hole the geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 11 October with possibility of isolated active
periods. The geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced
on 12 and 13 October to mostly unsettled with active periods
possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate depressions in MUFs
and degradations HF conditions may be observed during the
next three days, especially on mid and high latitudes, due
to a possible rise in the geomagnetic activity during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 52 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 45 near monthly predicted values/depressed 5%.
13 Oct 45 near monthly predicted values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions may be observed in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days due to a
possible rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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