[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 10 09:53:18 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity has been low over the last
24 hours. Region 680 (N15W90) produced several B-class
and a C1.2 flare (2044UT). Another C1.2 flare was observed
at 0437UT from unknown location. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 380km/s to 340 km/s by 2100UT
and then increased to 360 km/s by the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value almost the whole day. The solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels during the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 3111 1112
Darwin 4 3111 1112
Townsville 4 2211 1112
Learmonth 3 3111 1001
Culgoora 4 3111 1012
Canberra 4 3111 1012
Hobart 4 3111 0112
Casey(Ant) 9 4-32 1112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 1321 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 6 Quiet
11 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled isolated active periods possible.
12 Oct 17 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels on 10 October. Due to the effect of a coronal
hole, that is expected to take geoeffective position around 11
October, unsettled periods may be observed on 11 October with
some possibility of active periods on this day. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled levels with
possibility of active periods on 12 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in all regions on 10 October. However, periods of
minor to moderate depressions and degradations may be
possible for a few days starting from 11 October, especially
on mid and high latitudes, due to a possible rise in the
geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 58 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 53 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 46 near monthly predicted values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 10 October in most Aus/NZ regions. However, minor to
mild depressions may be observed in the Southern Aus/NZ
regions for a few days starting from 11 October due to a
possible rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 64300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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