[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 26 09:48:07 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity over the past
24 hours. A filament eruption in the central north solar hemisphere
at 24/1900 produced a north-directed CME first visible in LASCO
C3 imagery at 24/2320. The CME does not appear earth-directed.
There is a possibility of further isolated high C- to low M-class
activity from region 618, which maintains moderate size and magnetic
complexity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 4 1112 2111
Darwin 3 1112 1111
Townsville 7 3122 2122
Learmonth 4 1112 2110
Culgoora 2 1111 1101
Canberra 3 1112 2101
Hobart 4 1122 2101
Casey(Ant) 6 2322 2101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAY :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3243 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 8 Mostly quiet. Chance isolated unsettled periods.
27 May 8 Mostly quiet. Chance isolated unsettled periods.
28 May 8 Mostly quiet. Chance isolated unsettled periods.
COMMENT: There was a steady decline in solar wind speed over
the UT day. Bz polarity fluctuations decreased significantly,
indicating a weakening of the recent coronal hole wind stream.
Expect further decline in solar wind parameters today, with mostly
quiet geomagnetic conditions. Conditions should become generally
quiet on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with possible isolated degradations at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 55 near predicted monthly values
27 May 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 May 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed Equatorial/S
Aus regions. Periods of spread-F observed S Aus and Antarctic
regions. Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions are expected
over the next three days. Possible isolated degradations at high
latitudes in association with mild geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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