[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: There was an isolated C4 level flare from active region 
618 at 11UT. Otherwise no significant flare activity over the 
past 24 hours. There is a possibility of further isolated high 
C- to low M-class activity from region 618, which maintains moderate 
size and magnetic complexity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 4111
      Darwin              11   1233 4211
      Townsville          11   2233 4212
      Learmonth           11   2233 4111
      Culgoora             9   2232 4111
      Canberra            11   2233 4211
      Hobart              11   2233 4111
      Casey(Ant)          10   3432 2011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAY : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3323 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May    10    Quiet to unsettled. Chance isolated active periods. 
26 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
27 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The present coronal hole wind stream is persisting, 
with solar wind speed again elevated at 480-500 km/s over the 
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated mildly about 
neutral. Geomagnetic activity was mostly unsettled, with an isolated 
active period around 13UT. Activity declined to mostly quiet 
towards the end of the UT day. Expect continuing quiet to unsettled 
conditions today, with the chance of isolated active intervals. 
A decline to generally quiet conditions is anticipated by day 
three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with possible isolated degradations at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
      over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
26 May    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Periods of spread-F observed S Aus and Antarctic 
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next 
three days. Possible isolated degradations at high latitudes 
in association with mild geomagnetic disturbances. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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