[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity over the past 
24 hours. Solar wind speed has been steady at around 440km/sec 
over the UT day. A broad and thin coronal hole is visible in 
SOHO EIT284 imagery extending across the eastern solar hemisphere. 
Recurrence suggests that the Earth will experience a moderately 
elevated (approx. 600km/sec) solar wind stream 1-3 June. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   0111 1001
      Darwin               5   --31 1112
      Townsville           1   0101 0112
      Learmonth            1   0101 1001
      Culgoora             1   0101 0011
      Canberra             1   0101 1001
      Hobart               1   1001 1001
      Casey(Ant)           3   1222 1000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2133 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditions expected. A broad and thin 
coronal hole is expected to induce active periods 1-3 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 May    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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