[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 614 produced a C7-class flare at 0415UT while region 609 
was the source of a few B-class events, the largest being a B9-class 
flare at 0045UT. Region 609 has shown some decrease in size, 
but is still expected to produce further C-class flares. The 
solar wind velocity ranged bewtween 300km/s and 360km/s. Bz oscilated 
bewtween +/-4nT throughout the UT day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   110- ----
      Darwin               2   110- ----
      Townsville           3   120- ----
      Learmonth            1   010- ----
      Culgoora             3   111- ----
      Canberra             1   010- ----
      Hobart               1   010- ----
      Casey(Ant)           7   230- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAY : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2211 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Due to a computer failure, magnetometer data was only 
available between 0000UT and 0600UT. Thus there was insufficient 
data available for the entire UT day's geomagnetic activity. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected though, for the next 
few days, with the chance of possible isolated Active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days 
with possible degradations for 20-May. Minor degradations for 
HF conditions at higher latitudes possible over the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 May    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
19 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
20 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected over 
the next 24 hours with similar conditions expected over the next 
few days. Possible degradations at mid to high latitudes on 20-May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    38700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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