[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Some 
minor flare activity was observed, with region 612 the source 
of a C2-class flare at 0200UT and region 615 the source of a 
C3-class event at 0815UT and a C1-class flare at 1550UT. Region 
609 has shown some decay over the past few days and was not active 
over the last 24 hours. Further C-class events are expected for 
the next few days with the possible chance of M-class. The solar 
wind rose from 300km/s to 360km/s bewtween 0700UT and 1000UT 
and then gradually fell to 320km/s at the time of this report. 
Bz ranged between +/-5nT for the UT day with very few periods 
where it was southwards. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2111 1001
      Darwin               3   1111 2101
      Townsville           3   2112 2001
      Learmonth            6   310- ----
      Culgoora             6   310- ----
      Canberra             1   1011 1001
      Hobart               1   1011 1001
      Casey(Ant)           2   2121 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAY : 
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2101 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next few days, 
with the chance of possible isolated Active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days 
with possible degradations for 20-May. Minor degradations for 
HF conditions at higher latitudes possible over the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
20 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
21 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected over 
the next 24 hours with similar conditions expected over the next 
few days. Possible degradations at mid to high latitudes on 20-May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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