[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. 
Only minor B-class events occured, the largest originating from 
region 607 with a B5-class at 1515UT. No flare events were recorded 
from region 609 and its size and magnetic complexity remain unchanged. 
Region 609 still holds the potential for possible C-class and 
M-class flares. The solar wind velocity ranged bewtween 310km/s 
and 340km/s with a brief rise at 1800UT to 370km/s before returning 
to its previous range. Bz oscillated between +/-5nT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 0112
      Darwin               2   1111 0113
      Townsville           1   1010 0112
      Learmonth            2   1010 0212
      Culgoora             0   --00 0102
      Canberra             1   1110 0102
      Hobart               2   0100 1212
      Casey(Ant)           4   2220 0212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   4222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected to continue for for 
the next two days, with the chance of possible isolated Active 
periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days. 
Chance of minor degradations for HF conditions at higher latitudes 
possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 May    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values, 
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
18 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
19 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected over 
the next 24 hours with similar conditions expected over the next 
few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    45100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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