[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 3 09:45:38 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several B- and
C-class flares were recorded from region 601(S10W48)-
the largest being a C8.3 at 1119UT. Region 601 remained
quite active for the second consecutive day. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 410 km/s to 370 km/s
(approx.) by the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
remained mostly moderately positive. A high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole, is expected to keep the
solar wind stream strengthened during the next three days.
Also a faint CME has been reported associated with the
C9-flare observed on 01 May. This CME is expected to cause
some strengthening in the solar wind stream on 05 May. Due
to unavailability of LASCO images for the required period,
no further comment can be made about this CME at this stage.
Region 601 holds potential for isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 4 2112 1112
Darwin 5 2113 2112
Townsville 6 2113 2122
Learmonth 5 2113 1122
Culgoora 4 2112 1112
Canberra 3 2012 1111
Hobart 3 2112 1011
Casey(Ant) 3 2211 0111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAY :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3333 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
04 May 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
05 May 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and
is current for interval 3-4 May. The geomagnetic activity
remained lower than expected during the last 24 hours. The
possible reasons for this seem to be a weaker than expected
solar wind stream and also Bz remaining mostly positive. The
geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced during the next
3 days due to a coronal hole effect and a possible arrival
of a faint CME that was associated to the C9 flare observed
on 01 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Fair-normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
04 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
05 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Moderate degradations in HF conditions are
possible at mid and high latitudes during the next 3 days.
Minor degradations may also be recorded at low latitudes
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods of
significant depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
04 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
05 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on
2 May and is current for interval 3-4 May. Minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed, especially in the southern Aus/NZ regions during
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: A9.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 29700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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