[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 4 09:46:10 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several B- and a
C1(1343UT) flares were recorded from region 601(S10W62).
The solar wind speed remained between 350 and 380 km/s
(approx.) throughout the UT day today and remained below
the anticipated values. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations
(+/- 5nT approx.) almost the whole day. The coronal hole,
that is currently in a geoeffective position, has not
strengthened the solar wind stream to the anticipated levels
so far. However, this coronal hole is well positioned for
being geoeffective and may strengthen the solar wind stream
during the next few days. Also a faint CME, that was
reportedly associated with the C9-flare observed on 01 April,
also has some possibility of slightly strengthening the solar
wind stream late on 04 May or early on 05 May. Region 601
holds potential for C-class and isolated M-class activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 6 1222 1132
Darwin 5 1222 1122
Townsville 7 023- ----
Learmonth 5 1212 0132
Culgoora 5 0212 1131
Canberra 5 0212 1131
Hobart 5 0212 1132
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAY :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3102 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 16 Mostly quiet to active.
05 May 16 Mostly quiet to active.
06 May 16 Mostly quiet to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May
and is current for interval 3-4 May. The geomagnetic
activity remained lower than expected during the last
24 hours. The possible reasons for this seem to be a
weaker than expected solar wind stream and also Bz remaining
mostly near the normal value. The geomagnetic activity may
remain enhanced during the next 3 days due to a coronal
hole effect and a possible arrival of a faint CME that was
associated to the C9 flare observed on 01 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
are possible at mid and high latitudes during the next
3 days. Minor degradations may also be recorded at low
latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of significant depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
05 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
06 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on
2 May and is current for interval 3-4 May. Minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed, especially in the southern Aus/NZ regions during
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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