[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: M-class flare activity is possible from solar region 
582. Solar wind speeds have abated during the past 24 hours from 
900 km/s down to approximately 600 km/s. This high speed coronal 
solar wind stream is expected to continue to abate over the next 
couple of days and geomagnetic activity should return to mostly 
quiet to unsettled levels. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
28/1725UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3432 3322
      Darwin              14   3432 332-
      Townsville          14   3432 3323
      Learmonth           15   3433 3232
      Culgoora            14   3432 3321
      Canberra            14   3432 3322
      Hobart              14   3432 3322
      Casey(Ant)          28   5554 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            64   (Active)
      Canberra            97   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              84   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3123 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
30 Mar    12    Unsettled 
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods have been observed over 
the past 24 hours due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind 
stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline over the 
next couple of days as solar wind speeds are anticipated to decrease. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
at mid to high latitudes for 29 March due to recent coronal hole 
induced geomagnetic activity, otherwise mostly good HF conditions 
are expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      10-20% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    65    Mostly enhanced to depressed 5-10% at times. 
30 Mar    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
31 Mar    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for southern Aus/NZ regions for 29 March due to recent coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity, otherwise mostly good HF conditions 
are expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 588 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   309000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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