[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 28 09:01:42 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased after 1630UT from 600-900km/sec. 
This probably indicates that the Earth has entered the anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream. The recurrent pattern from this hole 
has narrowed in recent rotations, suggesting that elevated wind 
speed conditions may only persist for a few days. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated mildly 
southward over the past 24 hours. On disk solar regions have 
been relatively quiet over the past 24 hours. A new solar region 
is visible in US SEC SXI imagery on the solar south-east limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 2335
      Darwin              10   2223 2334
      Townsville          11   2223 3335
      Learmonth           11   3223 2335
      Culgoora            10   2223 2335
      Canberra            10   2223 2335
      Hobart              11   2233 2335
      Casey(Ant)          20   3444 3335
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   1021 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    20    active 
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
30 Mar    15    unsettled, chance of active periods early in 
                UT day. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 26 March and 
is current for interval 26-28 March. Geomagnetic activity forecast 
increased for today due to rising solar wind speed conditions. 
There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods in the next 
24 hours. This activity is associated with a 27 day recurrent 
pattern from a coronal hole wind stream. Activity expected next 
two days, declining on 30 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions expected 
at mid to high latitudes next two days, due to anticpated coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Initially good HF conditions expected today. Southern 
Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to be mildly depressed after local 
dawn on days 29 and 30 Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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