[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 27 10:45:50 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Region 
582 has shown some development over the past 24 hours and has 
the potential for further M-class activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2222 3333
      Darwin              11   3222 3333
      Townsville          10   2222 3334
      Learmonth           10   2222 3333
      Culgoora             8   1222 2333
      Canberra             9   1222 3333
      Hobart               9   2221 3333
      Casey(Ant)          16   3432 2343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   1112 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    20    active 
28 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 26 March and 
is current for interval 26-28 March. Solar wind velocity showed 
an upward trend over the second half of the UT day, and is at 
500 km/s at the time of report issue. The Bz component of the 
IMF has fluctuated mildly about neutral, limiting geomagnetic 
disturbance to isolated unsettled periods. A negative polarity 
shift late in the UT day preceded a period of active to minor 
storm conditions at high latitudes. Expect mostly unsettled conditions 
on day one, with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods 
especially at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions expected 
on days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels 
may result in slightly degraded HF conditions over the next few 
days mainly at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with 
      isolated localised disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Mar    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally enhanced HF propagation conditions observed 
throughout the region. Mild overnight spread-F conditions observed 
S Aus/NZ regions, and spread-F observed generally in Antarctic 
region. Equatorial/N Aus regions should experience continuing 
good HF conditions. Anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels may result in slightly degraded HF conditions over the 
next few days mainly southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    83200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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