[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: M-class flare activity is possible from solar region 
582. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly over 
the past 24 hours down to approximately 550km/s. The north-south 
component of the IMF has been fluctuating between +5 to -5 nT. 
This coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to continue to 
abate over the next couple of days and geomagnetic activity should 
be mostly quiet to unsettled levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2232 3322
      Darwin               9   2321 3322
      Townsville           9   2222 3322
      Learmonth            9   2222 3322
      Culgoora             8   2221 3322
      Canberra             9   1232 3322
      Hobart               9   1232 3322
      Casey(Ant)          21   -442 3442
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            50   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            88   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   3533 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated 
                active periods. 
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods have been observed over the 
past 24 hours due to a persisting coronal hole solar wind stream. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline over the next couple 
of days as solar wind speeds are anticipated to decrease. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
at mid to high latitudes for 30 March due to recent coronal hole 
induced geomagnetic activity, otherwise mostly good HF conditions 
are expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 10-20% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    75    Mostly enhanced 10-20% to depressed 5-10% at 
                times. 
31 Mar    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
01 Apr    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for southern Aus/NZ regions for 30 March due to recent coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity, otherwise mostly good HF conditions 
are expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 792 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   465000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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